If you’ve purchased high-carbon steel in the last few years, you know the market has been unpredictable. Factors like tariffs, geopolitical instability, and a reduced domestic supply have created pressures that even experienced buyers have rarely encountered.
We spoke with Chad Castrigano, Director of National Accounts at Three D Metals, to discuss what is driving volatility, the current market situation, and most importantly, how to navigate the current high-carbon steel landscape.
What’s Driving High-Carbon Steel Volatility?
The short answer? Many factors at once. Tariffs on imported metals have made offshore steel unaffordable for many buyers. The shift toward domestic mills has consequently driven domestic prices higher. The ongoing conflict in Iran has further complicated the price environment for high-carbon steel, making it particularly difficult to predict.
Additionally, one of the biggest contributors to the unpredictable availability of high-carbon steel is the concentration of domestic supply. High-carbon steel constitutes only 0.19% of the overall steel market. With the 2025 closure of the Cleveland-Cliffs steel mill in Riverdale, Illinois, only two mills remain in North America to produce it. As a result, every buyer in the region is sourcing their high-carbon steel from these same two producers.
“The market is a bit unnerving,” Castrigano noted, “because one wants diverse sources for purchasing – not only to secure the best price but also to avoid delays if one supplier is behind.”
Strategy Over Speculation
Given these market dynamics, securing a reliable supply has become a top priority for buyers. In recent years, we’ve observed a trend toward longer-term supply agreements tied to market indices. Such contracts help companies ensure they remain competitive when capacity becomes limited.
There’s also considerable value in how high-carbon steel is ordered and packaged. For customers utilizing high-speed stamping equipment, switching from standard pancake coils to oscillated coils can lead to significant reductions in downtime. Oscillated coils are wound like thread on a spool, allowing for more steel to be stored in the same space while minimizing the frequency of coil changes that disrupt production. This small adjustment can result in substantial efficiency improvements.
Perhaps the most critical strategy for reducing volatility is to avoid trying to time the market. When prices fluctuate, buyers often feel compelled to react. However, Castrigano warns that this is where the most costly mistakes are frequently made.
“No matter how accurate your prediction may seem, it’s likely to be wrong to some extent. Focus on long-term strategies,” he advised.
Looking Ahead: What Buyers Should Know
While we cannot predict with certainty what lies ahead for the high-carbon steel market, broader economic trends indicate the potential for prices to decrease.
“Currently, there is a lack of consumer confidence in the economy, based on the studies I’ve read,” Castrigano stated. “I believe this will lead to a drop in demand, thereby lowering prices.”
He is also closely monitoring automotive and appliance sales, which are trending lower than previously expected. Affordability is a significant factor in this equation; the average price of a new vehicle is nearing $50,000, with many buyers extending loan terms to 94 or 96 months to manage their payments. Castrigano believes this situation is not sustainable.
Regardless of market fluctuations in the coming months, his advice to high-carbon steel buyers remains consistent: stay the course.
The stock market serves as a useful analogy. One doesn’t stop investing or change stocks each time there’s a downturn or an upward swing, he remarked.
“Don’t alter your strategy based on today’s news, as it’s likely to change tomorrow.”
For buyers, this doesn’t mean ignoring the high-carbon steel market. Understanding the driving forces behind it and navigating the volatility will lead to better long-term decisions. At Three D Metals, we are committed to assisting you through this process. Connect with our product specialists at sales@threedmetals.com or call 1-800-362-9905.
